How Will AI Impact the US Primary Elections? What’s Next for OpenAI? Here Are Our Predictions for AI in 2024.
The past year witnessed an explosive rise for AI, propelling the technology from its niche status to the mainstream faster than ever. However, 2024 will mark the collision of hype with reality, as people grapple with both the potentials and limitations of AI on a broader scale. Here are our projections for how this will unfold.
- OpenAI Transforms into a Product Company
Following the leadership changes in November, OpenAI is set to undergo significant transformation. While this shift might not be immediately apparent, the influence of Sam Altman taking a more dominant role will permeate every aspect of the company. One expected outcome is a mindset geared towards rapid product delivery.
The GPT store, initially slated for a December launch but delayed due to internal disputes, will be aggressively marketed as the go-to platform for AI tools and applications. This move echoes Apple’s successful model, aiming to capitalize on market opportunities and consumers’ needs, potentially overshadowing competitors like Hugging Face and other open-source models.
Expect similar strategic shifts from other major AI-driven companies, with initiatives such as Gemini/Bard encroaching on Google’s product territory, albeit more prominently in OpenAI’s case.
- Agents, Generated Video, and Music Move Beyond Experimental Phases
Certain niche AI applications, like agent-based models and generative multimedia, will outgrow their experimental status in 2024. These models, designed to do more than just summarize or compile lists, will require access to users’ spreadsheets, ticketing interfaces, transportation apps, and similar platforms. While 2023 witnessed initial attempts at this “agent” approach, its widespread adoption remained limited. However, in 2024, these models will showcase their potential in streamlining tedious processes such as insurance claims.
Moreover, video and audio generated by AI will find niches where imperfections are less noticeable. Skilled creators will leverage AI-generated video for creative and engaging purposes, overlooking minor realism issues. Similarly, generative music models will likely feature in major productions like games, empowering musicians to craft infinite soundtracks.
- Understanding the Limits of Monolithic LLMs
While large language models (LLMs) have displayed remarkable capabilities, 2024 will shed light on their limitations. Despite their emergent abilities, deeper scrutiny will reveal shortcomings like their inability to handle complex mathematical tasks. Additionally, the diminishing returns on increasing parameter counts will become evident, prompting a shift from unwieldy monolithic models towards a blend of smaller, specialized models, and likely multimodal ones, proving nearly as effective yet far easier to update incrementally.
- Marketing Versus Reality
The inflated hype of 2023 will pose a challenge for companies striving to meet those expectations. Claims made in marketing materials for machine learning systems will undergo critical assessments during quarterly and annual reviews, likely resulting in a substantial withdrawal of customers due to unmet benefits, costs, and associated risks. Some companies might face legal actions for failing to substantiate their claims, leading to a consolidation within the industry as less stable entities struggle and potentially get absorbed.
- Apple’s Entry into AI
Apple, known for its pattern of observing competitors’ failures before entering markets with refined offerings, is poised to enter the AI arena. The timing aligns with the maturity of technology suitable for Apple’s approach, focusing on practical applications using users’ data while ensuring seamless integration within Apple’s ecosystem. Anticipate a sophisticated AI with tailored agent capabilities, potentially marketed as an enhanced Siri or a brand-new Apple AI service.
- Legal Battles and Evolving Cases
The year 2023 witnessed numerous lawsuits in the AI industry, many still pending or lacking substantial progress due to withheld critical information like training data and methods. In 2024, while some of these cases might fade, new ones will emerge, addressing misuse and abuse of AI in areas like employment bias and AI-related terminations. However, due to insufficient specific legislation, legal actions might only sporadically address these issues.
- Adopting New Regulations
Major regulations like the EU’s AI Act will gradually influence the industry, albeit at a slow pace. Companies willing to proactively comply will initiate the process, leading to a burgeoning AI compliance industry aimed at meeting international and local standards. Nevertheless, substantial federal regulation in the US is unlikely in 2024, given the focus on other pressing matters, notably the 2024 election.
- AI’s Impact on the 2024 Election
The outcome of the 2024 presidential election remains uncertain, but AI’s role is expected to intensify. Influence manipulators will leverage AI tools, employing bots and fake content to flood social media with fabricated news and images, exacerbating misinformation. Additionally, generated video and audio will add to the chaos, causing confusion and distrust among the populace. Efforts to mitigate misuse of AI-generated content will fall short, leading to a tumultuous election period.