Forecast for this Winter Season: Expectations and Projections

El Niño Affects Winter in the U.S.: Forecasting a Mild and Dry Winter. Climate Uncertainty Persists.

As winter approaches, expectations arise regarding the climate during this cold season in the United States. Federal forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) have given their forecast. It is worth mentioning that climate experts have revealed their annual winter perspective for the United States, as one of the most anticipated seasons of the year approaches. This time, everything points to the dreaded El Niño phenomenon being the protagonist, with its influences promising a peculiar winter for the country.

According to NOAA, the U.S. winter of 2023-24 will be marked by the effects of what could be a powerful El Niño. This news predicts a weather pattern that will translate into a mild and dry winter in much of the northern United States. However, the good news falls on the southeast of the country, which should experience a wetter winter than usual. It is important to highlight that this information is the result of a detailed analysis of climate data and weather projections.

The NOAA forecast covers the three key months of December, January, and February, known as meteorological winter. According to the agency, warmer temperatures than usual are expected in the northern U.S. and much of the western coast. In other words, winter will not be as harsh as in previous years in these regions of the country… The highest probabilities of experiencing warmer than usual conditions are concentrated in places like Alaska, the northwest Pacific, and northern New England.

It should be noted that in this regard, the forecast does not predict any part of the country experiencing colder temperatures than expected. However, in the southeast, where a wetter winter is expected, it is important for communities to prepare for the possibility of heavy rainfall and flooding. The El Niño phenomenon is a weather pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean and has a global impact on climate. During an El Niño event, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal.

As for the predicted precipitation, wetter than average conditions are more likely in northern Alaska. Also, in parts of the western coast from California to the southern Rockies, the southern plains, the Gulf Coast, the southeast, and the lower mid-Atlantic. “The moisture often associated with strong El Niño events supports high probabilities of above-average precipitation,” they say. “Above-average for the Gulf Coast, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southeastern states this winter,” said meteorologist Jon Gottschalck.

Similarly, it has been announced that the wet conditions throughout the southern region of the country should help alleviate drought in the region: “El Niño, with its increased rainfall, is expected to alleviate drought in the southern United States over the next few months,” said Brad Pugh of the Climate Prediction Center. As for where a dry winter is likely, the highest probabilities of drier than average conditions are forecasted in parts of the northern Rockies. Also, in the central region of the Great Lakes, especially in Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana, according to USAToday.

Tags: United States, climate