Title: Missile Strikes on Russian Airbases in Ukraine Prompt Russian Military Shift
Subtitle: Damage to Russian helicopters leads to potential operational and logistical changes
Date: October 22, 2023
Word Count: 1,055
The recent missile strikes on Russian airbases in occupied areas of Ukraine have prompted the Russian military to consider shifting their operational bases and command-and-control sites further back from the front lines. This assessment, made by the U.K. Ministry of Defense, follows satellite imagery from Berdyansk and Luhansk airfields, which revealed multiple damaged or destroyed helicopters. The strikes, which occurred on Tuesday, targeted airbases in Berdyansk and Luhansk, both important hubs for Russian military helicopter operations in Ukraine.
Satellite imagery from October 20, 2023, shows scorch marks on the parking area of Luhansk airbase consistent with the destruction of several helicopters. A closer examination of the damage reveals the impact of the missile strikes. Similarly, satellite images of Berdyansk airbase suggest that Russia has already begun moving some helicopters from there in response to the ATACMS strike. The missiles used were the initial variant of ATACMS, known as the MGM-140A, the M39, and the Block I. These missiles disperse relatively small M74 submunitions over a wide area, making them ideal for targeting airfields with clusters of aircraft.
Recent photos have also emerged showing damage to a Russian Aerospace Forces Ka-52 Hokum attack helicopter at Berdyansk. The presence of holes punched in the fuselage and cockpit glazing by ATACMS submunitions is evident, indicating the impact of the strikes. The U.K. Ministry of Defense noted that although the extent of damage is unconfirmed, it is likely that nine Russian military helicopters at Berdyansk and five at Luhansk were destroyed. The loss of these helicopters could significantly impact Russia’s ability to defend and conduct further offensive activity in the region.
The Russian commanders are concerned about the arrival of ATACMS on the battlefield, as it makes a wide range of targets more vulnerable and difficult to defend against. Additionally, Ukraine expects to receive a consistent supply of ATACMS, further escalating the threat to Russia. The Russian military now faces a strategic dilemma: whether to relocate key assets, infrastructure, and command-and-control sites farther from the front lines, thereby reducing their effectiveness, or accept the risk of ongoing ATACMS strikes.
If Russia does relocate its bases and command-and-control nodes, it would justify the supply of ATACMS to Ukraine. Ukraine has long sought a reliable means of targeting key Russian military installations within its borders. The delay in providing ATACMS to Ukraine was due to concerns about escalation. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized the U.S. for delivering missiles to Ukraine, he has yet to take any significant action in response.
In other news from Ukraine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue making incremental progress in their counteroffensive, despite challenges from extensive Russian minefields and fortified defenses. Russian efforts to capture the town of Avdiivka have encountered difficulties, as exemplified by the failure of an assault on the town. Ukrainian drones, artillery fire, and specific anti-personnel drone attacks have successfully repelled the Russian offensive.
Furthermore, Ukrainian forces have reportedly crossed the Dnipro River and captured two villages located inland. This operation, carried out by amphibious combat teams, suggests a potential larger offensive or reconnaissance mission. The success of this crossing over the largest inland water obstacle in Ukraine could have significant implications for future operations.
According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russia launched 12 missiles and conducted 60 airstrikes, along with 53 instances of bombardment by multiple launch rocket systems on a single day. The Russian military engaged Ukrainian troops in combat on 90 occasions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Russia lost 1,380 personnel during these conflicts.
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, the damage caused by missile strikes on Russian airbases has shifted the military dynamics on the ground. The Russian military’s response to the ATACMS attacks and the potential relocation of key assets will likely impact the ongoing conflict. Ukraine, with its consistent supply of ATACMS, may gain a significant advantage. The situation remains fluid, and further developments are expected in the coming days.
